The future of Blu-ray - TDK spokesperson Frank Goedbloed, EMEA product manager, optical media

Blu-ray technology undoubtedly won the format war in 2008, significantly outselling HD-DVD over the year. But was this a phantom victory? Is Blu-ray, once much heralded and prized by content users and providers, consigned to the scrap heap of most emerging technologies, where it will - in the not too distant future - be replaced by something even bigger and better?

Frank Goedbloed, EMEA product manager, optical media, TDK, comments:


"The Blu-ray Disc (BD) format has been developed with future requirements in mind. The modular storage capacity expansion foreseen in the initial BD format design, allows storage capacity to grow up to 8 data layers, all addressable from the same side. With 25GB per layer, based on the initial BD design, BD can expand storage capacity to up to 200GB. Meanwhile some Blu-ray Disc association members have demonstrated prototypes using blue laser technology, reaching up to 400GB. These capacities are expected to meet even the most demanding storage requirements from the entertainment industry. Blu-ray Disc will continue to be the format of choice for affordable entertainment for the next 10 plus years.

"From a recording point of view, HD DVD never really posed any kind of challenge to the BD-R/RE format. The few HD DVD writers that were released weren't exactly receiving raving reviews. BD-R/RE is a solid standard now entering the fourth generation of devices. The format is supported by several manufacturers of recorders, writers and recording media. In addition, from a physical standard perspective, the BD disc was superior in terms of A/V data transfer rate, storage capacity and data security (scratch resistance). The only gap that needed filling was availability of content. All major studios have, since the demise of HD DVD, decided to support the BD format.


"Downloading HD movies from the internet won't result in a physical media like Blu-ray becoming obsolete. The infrastructure needed for introduction of HD content on BD is widely available and retailers around the world have started to reserve shelf space for BD movies. The infrastructure for HD downloads is not yet in place and multi-Gigabyte downloads aren't practical with internet connections available to the general public. Once this infrastructure matures and offers speeds that allow HD movie downloads in minutes rather than days, we do agree that the content distribution model will start to change. We only need to look at what happened to the music distribution model since the introduction of iTunes etc. Considering the fact that CD distribution is affected by downloads but is still a major form of music distribution, it will take many years or even decades before HD movie downloads make a optical disc based format obsolete.


"The future of BD is bright. Consumers are massively switching to HD TV sets and many countries in Europe are now starting HD broadcast. Within a few years, DVD quality will not be sufficient for general consumption and the content industry is ready to serve consumers with the best possible quality in sound and video which fully exploits the potential of HD TV sets."


-ENDS-

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